Gais 1-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host IFK Varnamo at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 3W 2D 5L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IFK Varnamo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gais, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2021, ended 0–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Gais 35% | IFK Varnamo 35%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 35% | IFK Varnamo 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.792 / defence 1.139 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.995 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.122. Gais's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Gais games / 24 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 42%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Varnamo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 50% | IFK Varnamo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Gais 1.04 / IFK Varnamo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.792 / def 1.139 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.995 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.27
IFK Varnamo xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Gais 1 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Gais vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 30% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gais and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.79) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.55
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Gais xG
Total xG
2.31
1.27
IFK Varnamo xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Gais and 1.27 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Gais have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 8W 3D 12L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 14W 5D 4L from 23 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Varnamo are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gais.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.39 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 14W 5D 4L in their last 23 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.27 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Gais or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IFK Varnamo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gais's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gais
3
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 46%, IFK Varnamo 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gais) and 46% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 36%; Gais have failed to score in 36% of games; IFK Varnamo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gais's recent matches and 36% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gais's recent games and 46% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Gais 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Gais 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 42%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 35%, IFK Varnamo 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.