Gais 1-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Akropolis travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 4L across 6 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Akropolis — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 0.70 PPG, Akropolis 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Akropolis in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 25% versus Akropolis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 25% | Akropolis 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.18 xG and Akropolis 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.906 / defence 1.452 | Akropolis attack 0.663 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.088. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Gais games / 12 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 39% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 32%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Akropolis 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Gais 50% | Akropolis 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 39% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Gais 1.18 / Akropolis 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.906 / def 1.452 | Akropolis attack 0.663 / def 1.356 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Gais (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Akropolis xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Akropolis kick off?
Gais vs Akropolis kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Akropolis?
Gais 1 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Gais vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Akropolis part of?
Gais vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 39% chance of winning, Akropolis a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gais and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Akropolis in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Akropolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.91x the league average against Akropolis's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gais xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
Akropolis xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gais and 1.05 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gais's recent record stands at 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akropolis, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 6L across 12 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.08 PPG, Akropolis on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gais have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akropolis's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akropolis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Akropolis are on 0.75 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Akropolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Akropolis in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Akropolis have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Akropolis away?
Gais's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.00 PPG; Akropolis away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Gais or Akropolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Akropolis in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and Akropolis runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gais
2
Draws
0
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 0, Akropolis have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Akropolis 0-0 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 50%, Akropolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 33% (Akropolis).
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 33% of games; Akropolis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Akropolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of Akropolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Akropolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 33% of Akropolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Akropolis tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Akropolis in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Akropolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Akropolis finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.18 xG and Akropolis 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.91 / defence 1.45 against Akropolis attack 0.66 / defence 1.36, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 39% | Draw 29% | Akropolis 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 25%, Akropolis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Akropolis's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.08 PPG, Akropolis 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gais (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.