Falkenbergs FF 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF host Trelleborg at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trelleborg — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Falkenbergs FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Falkenbergs FF, 1 for Trelleborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 62% versus Trelleborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 62% | Trelleborg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.877 / defence 1.504 | Trelleborg attack 0.989 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.070. Data: 16 Falkenbergs FF games / 16 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.13. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 70% | Trelleborg 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.18 / Trelleborg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.877 / def 1.504 | Trelleborg attack 0.989 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Trelleborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 28% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Falkenbergs FF's attack at 0.88x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
28%
3.53
25%
4.03
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
Trelleborg xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.59 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 3D 10L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.38 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trelleborg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, Trelleborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 62%, Trelleborg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Falkenbergs FF) and 50% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trelleborg in 38%; Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 62% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 50% of Trelleborg's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.18 xG and Trelleborg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.50 against Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 62%, Trelleborg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Falkenbergs FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.