Falkenbergs FF 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Falkenbergs FF welcome GIF Sundsvall to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Falkenbergs FF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. GIF Sundsvall's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Falkenbergs FF's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Falkenbergs FF in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 57% versus GIF Sundsvall 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 64% | GIF Sundsvall 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.19 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.956 / defence 1.560 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.750 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.066. Data: 14 Falkenbergs FF games / 14 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Falkenbergs FF 70% | GIF Sundsvall 29%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.19 / GIF Sundsvall 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.956 / def 1.560 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.750 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 35% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Falkenbergs FF's attack rating (0.96) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.65
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.44
1.25
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.25 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF's recent record stands at 3W 2D 9L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 5L across 14 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIF Sundsvall by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Falkenbergs FF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Falkenbergs FF have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.43 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.00 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Falkenbergs FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Falkenbergs FF
3
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 57%, GIF Sundsvall 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Falkenbergs FF) and 14% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 43% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 29% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Falkenbergs FF's recent games and 14% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Falkenbergs FF and GIF Sundsvall drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.19 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.56 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 64%, GIF Sundsvall 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.