Falkenbergs FF 3-4 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF host AFC Eskilstuna at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's home record at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Falkenbergs FF) versus 0.90 (AFC Eskilstuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Falkenbergs FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 67% versus AFC Eskilstuna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 59% | AFC Eskilstuna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.66 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.945 / defence 1.538 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.773 / defence 1.597. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.235. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.597 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Falkenbergs FF games / 27 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 70% | AFC Eskilstuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.66 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.945 / def 1.538 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.773 / def 1.597 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.47
AFC Eskilstuna xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Falkenbergs FF 3 - 4 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 42% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.11
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.13
1.47
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.47 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Falkenbergs FF's recent record stands at 6W 7D 14L from 27 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 12L across 27 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Falkenbergs FF on 0.93 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Falkenbergs FF have managed 4W 3D 6L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Falkenbergs FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.15 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Falkenbergs FF 3-4 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 62%, AFC Eskilstuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Falkenbergs FF) and 46% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 31% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 46% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Falkenbergs FF's recent games and 46% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Falkenbergs FF and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Falkenbergs FF 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Falkenbergs FF 3-4 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.66 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.54 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.77 / defence 1.60, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 42% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 59%, AFC Eskilstuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 0.93 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.