Dalkurd FF 3-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Skövde AIK make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 13 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dalkurd FF (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Skövde AIK have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Superettan outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.00. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Skövde AIK have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 2.00 for Skövde AIK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG and Skövde AIK 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.693 / defence 1.056 | Skövde AIK attack 1.103 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.408. Dalkurd FF's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Dalkurd FF games / 6 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 25% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 51%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Skövde AIK 1.96. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Skövde AIK at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 25% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.07 / Skövde AIK 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.693 / def 1.056 | Skövde AIK attack 1.103 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Skövde AIK xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK?
Dalkurd FF 3 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 25% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dalkurd FF's attack at 0.69x the league average against Skövde AIK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (1.10x) against Dalkurd FF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
25%
4.03
25%
4.07
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.64
Skövde AIK xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
20.79
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.64 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalkurd FF's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dalkurd FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Dalkurd FF against 2.00 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalkurd FF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dalkurd FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Skövde AIK in 0%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Early Season
Skövde AIK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Dalkurd FF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Dalkurd FF or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalkurd FF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalkurd FF
1
Draws
0
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 1, Skövde AIK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2022, when Skövde AIK 2-2 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Skövde AIK?
Dalkurd FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalkurd FF play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Dalkurd FF's recent matches and 0% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalkurd FF vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalkurd FF's recent games and 50% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dalkurd FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalkurd FF beat Skövde AIK 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.07 xG and Skövde AIK 1.64 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dalkurd FF beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Skövde AIK attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 25% | Draw 25% | Skövde AIK 51%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Dalkurd FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalkurd FF 50%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalkurd FF 2.00 PPG, Skövde AIK 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalkurd FF win broke the near-deadlock. Dalkurd FF scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Skövde AIK shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.