Akropolis 3-2 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Akropolis welcome Vasalund to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.09 xG and Vasalund 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.813 / defence 1.019 | Vasalund attack 1.094 / defence 1.537. League average goals — home 0.873 / away 1.016. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.537 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Akropolis games / 8 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 34% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 37%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Vasalund 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasalund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 34% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Akropolis 1.09 / Vasalund 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.813 / def 1.019 | Vasalund attack 1.094 / def 1.537 | league avg home 0.873 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vasalund xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Vasalund kick off?
Akropolis vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 June 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Vasalund?
Akropolis 3 - 2 Vasalund.
Where is Akropolis vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Vasalund part of?
Akropolis vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 34% chance of winning, Vasalund a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Akropolis and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and Vasalund in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akropolis's attack at 0.81x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.46
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.22
1.13
Vasalund xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.13 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Pre-Season
Vasalund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akropolis and Vasalund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Akropolis
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Vasalund 0-1 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and Vasalund?
Akropolis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Akropolis defy the odds to beat Vasalund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Vasalund 3-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.09 xG and Vasalund 1.13 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Akropolis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasalund outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Vasalund attack 1.09 / defence 1.54, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 34% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 37%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Akropolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.