Akropolis 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akropolis at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Akropolis welcome Osters IF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Akropolis — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akropolis at Studenternas IP this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Akropolis) versus 1.10 (Osters IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Akropolis in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 54% versus Osters IF 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akropolis 31% | Osters IF 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 0.98 xG and Osters IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.804 / defence 1.326 | Osters IF attack 0.658 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.098. Data: 13 Akropolis games / 13 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 35% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 34%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Osters IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Akropolis as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akropolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Akropolis 50% | Osters IF 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 35% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Akropolis 0.98 / Osters IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.804 / def 1.326 | Osters IF attack 0.658 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Akropolis (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Osters IF xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Osters IF kick off?
Akropolis vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 3 August 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Osters IF?
Akropolis 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Akropolis vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Osters IF part of?
Akropolis vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 35% chance of winning, Osters IF a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Akropolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Akropolis and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and Osters IF in?
Akropolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Akropolis's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akropolis Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Akropolis xG
Total xG
1.94
0.96
Osters IF xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Akropolis and 0.96 for Osters IF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Akropolis have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 2W 5D 6L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Akropolis.
Venue Form
On home soil, Akropolis have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Akropolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Akropolis are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 0.85 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Osters IF away?
Akropolis's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.33 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Akropolis or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akropolis have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Osters IF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Akropolis
0
Draws
1
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Osters IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 1, Osters IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Osters IF 2-1 Akropolis.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akropolis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osters IF tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Akropolis 50% BTTS, Osters IF 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Akropolis and 17% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 50%; Akropolis have failed to score in 33% of games; Osters IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Akropolis's recent matches and 17% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Akropolis's recent games and 17% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Osters IF tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akropolis edge out Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis beat Osters IF 1-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 0.98 xG and Osters IF 0.96 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.80 / defence 1.33 against Osters IF attack 0.66 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 35% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 34%, with Akropolis to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 31%, Osters IF 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Osters IF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Akropolis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akropolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.