Akropolis 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Jonkopings Sodra travel to Grimsta IP to take on Akropolis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Akropolis have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akropolis have posted 3W 2D 5L at Grimsta IP — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akropolis 1.40 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Akropolis, 1 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2021, ended 1–4 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Akropolis trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 50% versus Jonkopings Sodra 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akropolis 41% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 1.03 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.696 / defence 1.427 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.714 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.137. Akropolis's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Akropolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Akropolis games / 21 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 32% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Akropolis 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 32% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Akropolis 1.03 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.696 / def 1.427 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.714 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Akropolis 1 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 32% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Akropolis 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Akropolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akropolis's attack at 0.70x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Akropolis's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
32%
3.10
29%
3.43
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Akropolis xG
Total xG
2.19
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Akropolis and 1.16 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akropolis's recent record stands at 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 9L across 22 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akropolis on 1.09 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akropolis have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
The Goals Picture
Akropolis are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Akropolis's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.10 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Akropolis
1
Draws
1
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2021, when Akropolis 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akropolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akropolis 40%, Jonkopings Sodra 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Akropolis) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Akropolis have failed to score in 40% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Akropolis's recent matches and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Akropolis's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis and Jonkopings Sodra finished level at 1-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 1.03 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.43 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.71 / defence 1.41, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 32% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 39%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 41%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akropolis 1.09 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.