AFC Eskilstuna 4-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 13 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Orgryte IS to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Tunavallen this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Eskilstuna at 1.10 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 25% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Eskilstuna 25% | Orgryte IS 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.167 / defence 0.933 | Orgryte IS attack 0.996 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.120. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 AFC Eskilstuna games / 12 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 27%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 3.70. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 33% | Orgryte IS 83%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 / Orgryte IS 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.167 / def 0.933 | Orgryte IS attack 0.996 / def 1.331 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
AFC Eskilstuna 4 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 47% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.17x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.81
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.04 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.25 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.08 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Orgryte IS away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.33 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jul 2021, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
3
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 33%, Orgryte IS 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 83% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AFC Eskilstuna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Orgryte IS 4-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.47 xG and Orgryte IS 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Orgryte IS attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 47% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 27%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 25%, Orgryte IS 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.25 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.