AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 19 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Norrby IF's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.50 for Norrby IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 4–1 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 50% versus Norrby IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Norrby IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.12 xG and Norrby IF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.303 / defence 1.113 | Norrby IF attack 0.823 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.399. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 AFC Eskilstuna games / 37 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 22%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Norrby IF 4.55. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 50% | Norrby IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.12 / Norrby IF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.303 / def 1.113 | Norrby IF attack 0.823 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Norrby IF xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 1 - 2 Norrby IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 56% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 1W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.30) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.82x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.50
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.40
1.28
Norrby IF xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
3%
37.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.28 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 8L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.60 for Norrby IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
Norrby IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 games (1.33 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Norrby IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.87 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Norrby IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Norrby IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
3
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Norrby IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Norrby IF 2-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 47%, Norrby IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 47% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Norrby IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 53% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 47% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Norrby IF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.12 xG and Norrby IF 1.28 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.30 / defence 1.11 against Norrby IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 22%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Norrby IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 50%, Norrby IF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG, Norrby IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norrby IF win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.