AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tunavallen, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 2D 0L this season (8 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tunavallen. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
IK brage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for AFC Eskilstuna, 1.30 for IK brage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AFC Eskilstuna 0W, IK brage 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with IK brage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Eskilstuna — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 41% versus IK brage 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 41% | IK brage 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.98 xG and IK brage 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.462 / defence 0.933 | IK brage attack 1.094 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.026. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 AFC Eskilstuna games / 17 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 59% | Draw 21% | IK brage 19%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | IK brage 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 38% | IK brage 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 59% | Draw 21% | IK brage 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.98 / IK brage 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.462 / def 0.933 | IK brage attack 1.094 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IK brage xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 1 IK brage.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 59% chance of winning, IK brage a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.46x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.09x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.66
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.03
1.05
IK brage xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
37.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.05 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 6W 4D 7L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.06 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2.50 PPG from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while IK brage have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or IK brage away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.50 PPG; IK brage away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IK brage in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Eskilstuna
1
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 38%, IK brage 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 50% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 62% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 50% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and IK brage tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, IK brage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out IK brage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat IK brage 2-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.98 xG and IK brage 1.05 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.46 / defence 0.93 against IK brage attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 59% | Draw 21% | IK brage 19%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 41%, IK brage 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.29 PPG, IK brage 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.