AFC Eskilstuna 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tunavallen plays host to AFC Eskilstuna versus IF Brommapojkarna in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 3 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tunavallen, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IF Brommapojkarna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Eskilstuna 82% and IF Brommapojkarna 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AFC Eskilstuna 82% | IF Brommapojkarna 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 2.54 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.392 / defence 1.130 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.978 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.422. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 AFC Eskilstuna games / 11 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 58% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 23%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.35. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.11 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 58% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 2.54 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.392 / def 1.130 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.978 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna?
AFC Eskilstuna 3 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 58% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 23% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.39) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.98x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
58%
1.71
19%
5.29
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
4.11
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
8%
12.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
2%
56.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.57 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 6W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.64 for IF Brommapojkarna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.09 scored and 1.73 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 0D 5L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.80 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for AFC Eskilstuna, 60% for IF Brommapojkarna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for AFC Eskilstuna and 60% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of AFC Eskilstuna's matches and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Eskilstuna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 2.54 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.39 / defence 1.13 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 58% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 23%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 82%, IF Brommapojkarna 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.