Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Mjallby AIF at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Borås Arena, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjallby AIF — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 59% versus Mjallby AIF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 54% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.86 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.773 / defence 0.782 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.000 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.165. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 59 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Mjallby AIF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Varbergs BoIS FC's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
Varbergs BoIS FC dominate the H2H record, yet Mjallby AIF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 30% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.86 / Mjallby AIF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.773 / def 0.782 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.000 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mjallby AIF xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 2W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.01
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.91
Mjallby AIF xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 15.5 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.91 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 17D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.39 PPG from 59 outings (21W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.25 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 19D 19L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 62%, Mjallby AIF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 45% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 52% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 45% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.86 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.91 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.78 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.00 / defence 0.74, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 33% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, Mjallby AIF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.