Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome IF Elfsborg to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 1–4 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 52% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 52% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.844 / defence 1.035 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.080 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.190. Data: 56 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 56 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 40%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | IF Elfsborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | IF Elfsborg 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 / IF Elfsborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.844 / def 1.035 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.080 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 28% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
Record (5 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 3 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.84) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.17
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
7%
13.34
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.33 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 16W 17D 23L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 16L across 56 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 9W 10D 9L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 12W 6D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 16W 17D 23L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 14D 16L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.32 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 39%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.09 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 28% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 40%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.