Sirius 2-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 84%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Sirius, 1.90 for Orgryte IS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 78% and Orgryte IS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 69% | Orgryte IS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 3.79 xG and Orgryte IS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.396 / defence 0.952 | Orgryte IS attack 0.881 / defence 1.669. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.372. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 3.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.669 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Sirius games / 6 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 84% | Draw 9% | Orgryte IS 7%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.19 | Draw 11.11 | Orgryte IS 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (84%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (3.79 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 87% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | Orgryte IS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 84% | Draw 9% | Orgryte IS 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 67% | xG Sirius 3.79 / Orgryte IS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.396 / def 0.952 | Orgryte IS attack 0.881 / def 1.669 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Sirius (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.79
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Orgryte IS xG
67%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Sirius vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Orgryte IS?
Sirius 2 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Sirius vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Orgryte IS part of?
Sirius vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 84% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 7% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sirius and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Orgryte IS in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.40) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.67), the model arrives at 3.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.88x) against Sirius's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 4-1 (7.1%), 3-0 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
84%
1.19
9%
10.59
7%
14.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
7.1%
Home win
3 – 0
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.79
Sirius xG
Total xG
4.94
1.15
Orgryte IS xG
1.19
84%
Home win
10.59
9%
Draw
14.62
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
73%
Over 3.5
1.37
27%
Under 3.5
3.70
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
2%
44.04
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 3.79 expected goals for Sirius and 1.15 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 4.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Sirius against 1.50 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sirius's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Orgryte IS in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Orgryte IS away?
Sirius's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Sirius
0
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orgryte IS?
From 1 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Orgryte IS?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 62%, Orgryte IS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sirius) and 38% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 31%; Orgryte IS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sirius's games and 56% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sirius's recent games and 38% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Orgryte IS 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 3.79 xG and Orgryte IS 1.15 xG, a combined 4.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Orgryte IS attack 0.88 / defence 1.67, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 84% | Draw 9% | Orgryte IS 7%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 84%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 73% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 69%, Orgryte IS 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.25 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.