Sirius 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host Orebro SK at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sirius have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Studenternas IP this season.
Orebro SK — All Games: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Orebro SK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.60 PPG versus Orebro SK's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Orebro SK trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 60% versus Orebro SK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sirius 60% | Orebro SK 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.06 xG and Orebro SK 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.049 / defence 1.434 | Orebro SK attack 0.931 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.263. Data: 5 Sirius games / 5 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 24% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 52%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 1.92. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 67% | Orebro SK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 24% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Sirius 1.06 / Orebro SK 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.049 / def 1.434 | Orebro SK attack 0.931 / def 1.067 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Orebro SK xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Orebro SK kick off?
Sirius vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Sirius 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Sirius vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Orebro SK part of?
Sirius vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 24% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sirius and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Orebro SK in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
24%
4.19
24%
4.14
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.75
1.69
Orebro SK xG
4.19
24%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
22.66
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sirius and 1.69 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sirius, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Orebro SK's form line: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Orebro SK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sirius are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Orebro SK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Early Season
Orebro SK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Sirius or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sirius's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sirius
1
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Orebro SK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2021, when Orebro SK 1-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 60%, Orebro SK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sirius) and 20% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 40%; Orebro SK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sirius's recent matches and 40% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sirius's recent games and 20% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.06 xG and Orebro SK 1.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.05 / defence 1.43 against Orebro SK attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 24% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 52%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, Orebro SK 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Orebro SK shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.