Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face IFK Varnamo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sirius welcome IFK Varnamo to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 3.10. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sirius carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sirius register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, IFK Varnamo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Sirius, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 66% and IFK Varnamo 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | IFK Varnamo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 3.22 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.421 / defence 0.882 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.111 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 3.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Sirius games / 59 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 73% | Draw 15% | IFK Varnamo 12%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | IFK Varnamo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (3.22 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.60 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 73% | Draw 15% | IFK Varnamo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 73% | xG Sirius 3.22 / IFK Varnamo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.421 / def 0.882 | IFK Varnamo attack 1.111 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Sirius (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.22
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
73%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Sirius 3 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 73% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sirius and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Record (7 meetings): Sirius 4W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.42) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 3.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.2%), 4-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
73%
1.38
15%
6.57
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
4 – 1
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.22
Sirius xG
Total xG
4.60
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.57
15%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
4%
25.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 3.22 expected goals for Sirius and 1.38 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 4.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius's recent record stands at 22W 11D 26L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 31L across 59 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sirius by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Varnamo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 12W 5D 12L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 6W 8D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.10 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 22W 11D 26L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 11W 17D 31L in their last 59 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Sirius's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.41 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sirius's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sirius
1
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 55%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sirius) and 41% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 31% of games; IFK Varnamo in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sirius's recent matches and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Sirius's recent games and 41% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Varnamo 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 3.22 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG, a combined 4.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.42 / defence 0.88 against IFK Varnamo attack 1.11 / defence 1.56, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 73% | Draw 15% | IFK Varnamo 12%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, IFK Varnamo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.