Sirius 2-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Sirius (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.80 PPG clear of Sirius in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sirius, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 63% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.02 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.916 / defence 1.133 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.457 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.047. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Sirius games / 37 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | IF Elfsborg 1.85. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Sirius 1.02 / IF Elfsborg 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.916 / def 1.133 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.457 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.73
IF Elfsborg xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Sirius 2 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Sirius vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 22% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sirius and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.92x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.46x) against Sirius's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
22%
4.51
24%
4.21
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.74
1.73
IF Elfsborg xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
25.39
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sirius and 1.73 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 18D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.77 PPG from 60 outings (29W 19D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.47 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Sirius or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
0
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 63%, IF Elfsborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sirius) and 53% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sirius's games and 53% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sirius's matches and 53% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Sirius and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.02 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.46 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.