Sirius 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Hammarby FF encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sirius's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sirius have won 0, Hammarby FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Hammarby FF winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 63% and Hammarby FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | Hammarby FF 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.15 xG and Hammarby FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.046 / defence 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 1.414 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.941. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Sirius games / 34 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sirius 32% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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