Sirius 3-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sirius) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Hammarby FF trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 75% and Hammarby FF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.95 xG and Hammarby FF 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.377 / defence 1.553 | Hammarby FF attack 0.879 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.364. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sirius games / 16 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Hammarby FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 88% | Hammarby FF 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Sirius 1.95 / Hammarby FF 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.377 / def 1.553 | Hammarby FF attack 0.879 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Hammarby FF xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 3 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.38x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.49
23%
4.33
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.81
1.86
Hammarby FF xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
6%
16.01
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sirius and 1.86 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 6W 7D 3L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 6W 6D 4L from 16 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.56 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 88%, Hammarby FF at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Sirius and 88% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Sirius's games and 75% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Sirius's matches and 88% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.95 xG and Hammarby FF 1.86 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hammarby FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.38 / defence 1.55 against Hammarby FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 37%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.56 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.