Sirius 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AIK Stockholm — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 64% versus AIK Stockholm 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 59% | AIK Stockholm 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.21 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.907 / defence 1.027 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.178 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.126. Data: 44 Sirius games / 44 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 30% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 38%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | AIK Stockholm 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | AIK Stockholm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 30% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Sirius 1.21 / AIK Stockholm 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.907 / def 1.027 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.178 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AIK Stockholm xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 30% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.13
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.58
1.36
AIK Stockholm xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sirius and 1.36 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 15D 16L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 18W 12D 14L from 44 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.23 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.16 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Sirius's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.48 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 71%, AIK Stockholm 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sirius) and 43% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sirius's games and 48% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sirius's recent games and 43% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.21 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.36 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.18 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 30% | Draw 32% | AIK Stockholm 38%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 59%, AIK Stockholm 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.23 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.