Ostersunds FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 34%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF meet at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Djurgardens IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 52% | Djurgardens IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.041 / defence 1.110 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.921 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.062. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Ostersunds FK games / 50 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 33%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Djurgardens IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.11 / Djurgardens IF 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.041 / def 1.110 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.921 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Djurgardens IF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 34% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.92x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
34%
2.94
33%
3.02
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
Djurgardens IF xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.08 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 12D 27L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.78 PPG from 50 outings (26W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 5W 5D 14L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 12D 27L in their last 50 games (0.90 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 11D 13L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.83 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 54%, Djurgardens IF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ostersunds FK) and 42% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 38%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Ostersunds FK 0-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.11 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 33%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 52%, Djurgardens IF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.