Orgryte IS vs Gais – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 5D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gais's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Orgryte IS, 1.40 for Gais — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Gais in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Orgryte IS 2W, Gais 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus Gais 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Gais 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.53 xG and Gais 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.034 / defence 1.339 | Gais attack 0.828 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 49 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 26% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Gais 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Gais 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 26% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Orgryte IS 1.53 / Gais 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.034 / def 1.339 | Gais attack 0.828 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Gais xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Gais kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Gais is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Gais part of?
Orgryte IS vs Gais is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 39% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Orgryte IS and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
Record (5 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 3W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Gais (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.83x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Gais xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.45 for Gais, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orgryte IS come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 13D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.59 PPG from 49 outings (21W 15D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.59 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orgryte IS's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.43 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Gais in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Gais have gone 21W 15D 13L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Gais away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.58 PPG; Gais away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gais in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Gais have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 50%, Gais 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 58% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 50% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Gais tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gais in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.