Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.60 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 45% | Vasteras SK FK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.813 / defence 0.910 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.062 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.437. Data: 42 Mjallby AIF games / 12 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 30% | Vasteras SK FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.46 / Vasteras SK FK 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.813 / def 0.910 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.062 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 39% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.82
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.39 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 42 games, going 27W 10D 5L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.98 PPG from 42 outings (25W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 2.17 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (12W 1D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 2.00 scored and 1.26 conceded. Vasteras SK FK's attacking output running into Mjallby AIF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 games (2.17 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 25W 8D 9L in their last 42 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.15 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 45%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Mjallby AIF) and 75% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 75% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, as Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 45%, Vasteras SK FK 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 2.17 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.