Mjallby AIF 3-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjallby AIF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Sirius meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sirius (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Sirius managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2023, ended 3–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mjallby AIF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.69 xG and Sirius 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.050 / defence 0.922 | Sirius attack 0.880 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.374. Data: 43 Mjallby AIF games / 42 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 24% | Sirius 25%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 4.00. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 24% | Sirius 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.69 / Sirius 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.050 / def 0.922 | Sirius attack 0.880 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sirius xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 51% chance of winning, Sirius a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 4W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.05) and Sirius's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.88x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.15
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.80
1.11
Sirius xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.11 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 6D 17L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 16W 9D 17L from 42 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.36 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.60 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 6D 17L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Sirius have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Sirius away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.33 PPG; Sirius away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sirius in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 7, Sirius have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 48%, Sirius 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 29% of games; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 52% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 57% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Sirius tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Sirius 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 3-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.69 xG and Sirius 1.11 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Sirius attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 24% | Sirius 25%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG, Sirius 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.