Mjallby AIF 3-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Ostersunds FK arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2020, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 68% versus Ostersunds FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 60% | Ostersunds FK 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.089 / defence 1.339 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.859 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.388. Data: 25 Mjallby AIF games / 25 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 44%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.19 / Ostersunds FK 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.089 / def 1.339 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.859 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Ostersunds FK xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 26% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.09) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.86x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
26%
3.92
31%
3.25
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.79
1.60
Ostersunds FK xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.32
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.60 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 8W 8D 9L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 8W 9D 8L from 25 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.32 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 5D 1L from 12 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.32 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Ostersunds FK's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.58 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 1 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
0
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-2 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 75%, Ostersunds FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mjallby AIF) and 33% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Ostersunds FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mjallby AIF's games and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Ostersunds FK 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.60 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.09 / defence 1.34 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 26% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 44%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 60%, Ostersunds FK 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.28 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.