Mjallby AIF 1-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 3D 5L at Strandvallen — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.30 PPG, Malmo FF 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 2, Malmo FF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 44% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.96 xG and Malmo FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.766 / defence 0.963 | Malmo FF attack 1.033 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.202. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Mjallby AIF games / 48 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 29% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Malmo FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 40% | Malmo FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 29% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.96 / Malmo FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.766 / def 0.963 | Malmo FF attack 1.033 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Malmo FF xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 29% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.77) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.42
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.15
1.20
Malmo FF xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.20 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 14D 16L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.81 PPG from 48 outings (26W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.42 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 6W 9D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 18W 14D 16L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 26W 9D 13L in their last 48 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.17 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 65%, Malmo FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mjallby AIF) and 52% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 39%; Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 44% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 52% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Malmo FF 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.96 xG and Malmo FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Malmo FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Malmo FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 29% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 41%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Malmo FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, Malmo FF 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.