Mjallby AIF 3-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.80 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 4 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Hammarby FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.005 / defence 0.966 | Hammarby FF attack 1.093 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.173. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Mjallby AIF games / 33 Hammarby FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 90% | Hammarby FF 10%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.02 / Hammarby FF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.005 / def 0.966 | Hammarby FF attack 1.093 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 30% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 4W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.51
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.26
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.24 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 13D 21L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 17D 16L from 60 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.52 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Hammarby FF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 30% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Hammarby FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.