Mjallby AIF 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 36% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.786 / defence 0.884 | Hammarby FF attack 0.747 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.187. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Mjallby AIF games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Hammarby FF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hammarby FF's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Hammarby FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.05 / Hammarby FF 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.786 / def 0.884 | Hammarby FF attack 0.747 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 41% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.11
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.83
0.78
Hammarby FF xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.78 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 14D 17L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 24W 13D 13L from 50 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.42 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.32 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Hammarby FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 36%; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 36% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 0-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 0.78 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.79 / defence 0.88 against Hammarby FF attack 0.75 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 27%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 36%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.