Mjallby AIF 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mjallby AIF face Djurgardens IF.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Mjallby AIF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Djurgardens IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mjallby AIF, 1.60 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Mjallby AIF 0–1 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus Djurgardens IF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | Djurgardens IF 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mjallby AIF surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Djurgardens IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.35 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / defence 0.831 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.379 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.306. Djurgardens IF bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mjallby AIF's projected output down. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack rating of 1.379, which lifts their away xG to 1.50. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 40 games and Djurgardens IF's last 40.

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.92 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 50% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 50% (last 10 away games).

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