Mjallby AIF 3-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2020, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 1D 2L from 6 Allsvenskan matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Mjallby AIF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 2W 4D 0L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. BK Hacken have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 0W 3D 0L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.67 PPG versus BK Hacken's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 33% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 33% | BK Hacken 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG and BK Hacken 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.874 / defence 1.136 | BK Hacken attack 0.796 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.127. Data: 6 Mjallby AIF games / 6 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | BK Hacken 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 33% | BK Hacken 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.99 / BK Hacken 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.874 / def 1.136 | BK Hacken attack 0.796 / def 1.173 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
BK Hacken xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 34% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.87) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
34%
2.95
31%
3.25
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.01
1.02
BK Hacken xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.02 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 0L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for BK Hacken, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.67 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Early Season
BK Hacken
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 33%, BK Hacken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mjallby AIF and 33% for BK Hacken.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; BK Hacken in 50%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 50% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 33% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG and BK Hacken 1.02 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against BK Hacken attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 34% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 35%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 33%, BK Hacken 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.67 PPG, BK Hacken 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.