Malmo FF 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Malmo FF face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sirius travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's home record at Eleda Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Malmo FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Malmo FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Sirius, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2024, ended 4–3 with Malmo FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Malmo FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sirius in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 47% versus Sirius 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Malmo FF 71% | Sirius 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 2.57 xG and Sirius 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.427 / defence 0.692 | Sirius attack 0.985 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.334. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — their λ of 2.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Malmo FF's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Malmo FF games / 45 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 73% | Draw 16% | Sirius 11%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Sirius 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 30% | Sirius 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 73% | Draw 16% | Sirius 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 55% | xG Malmo FF 2.57 / Sirius 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.427 / def 0.692 | Sirius attack 0.985 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sirius xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Sirius kick off?
Malmo FF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Malmo FF 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Malmo FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Sirius part of?
Malmo FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 73% chance of winning, Sirius a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Malmo FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): Malmo FF 5W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.43x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.35
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
3.48
0.91
Sirius xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.35
16%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
8%
13.07
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
1%
118.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.91 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Malmo FF come into this having played 45 games, going 31W 6D 8L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.33 PPG from 45 outings (17W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Malmo FF's home form reads 17W 3D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Malmo FF are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 31W 6D 8L in their last 45 games (2.20 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Sirius away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.57 PPG; Sirius away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sirius in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Malmo FF
1
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 5, Sirius have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Sirius?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 43%, Sirius 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Malmo FF and 62% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 52% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Malmo FF's matches and 62% of Sirius's.
Do Malmo FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Malmo FF 0-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.57 xG and Sirius 0.91 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Malmo FF fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.43 / defence 0.69 against Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 73% | Draw 16% | Sirius 11%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 71%, Sirius 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.