IFK Goteborg 2-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as IFK Goteborg welcome IFK Varnamo to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.89 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.025 / defence 0.948 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.252. Data: 30 IFK Goteborg games / 0 IFK Varnamo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 58% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 20%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | IFK Varnamo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 58% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.89 / IFK Varnamo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.025 / def 0.948 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
IFK Varnamo xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 58% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. IFK Goteborg home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.51
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
IFK Varnamo xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.01 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out IFK Varnamo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.89 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 58% | Draw 22% | IFK Varnamo 20%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.