IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Goteborg (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Goteborg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours IFK Goteborg, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Degerfors IF — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2025, ended 3–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IFK Goteborg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Degerfors IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 52% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG and Degerfors IF 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.867 / defence 1.024 | Degerfors IF attack 0.809 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.309. Data: 44 IFK Goteborg games / 44 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 44% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 24%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Degerfors IF 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 44% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.53 / Degerfors IF 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.867 / def 1.024 | Degerfors IF attack 0.809 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Degerfors IF xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 44% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (8 meetings): IFK Goteborg 6W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.81x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.15
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.08
Degerfors IF xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
19.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.08 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 19W 7D 18L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF's form line: 10W 10D 24L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Goteborg are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (8W 3D 10L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 19W 7D 18L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.29 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Degerfors IF 3-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 52%, Degerfors IF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (IFK Goteborg) and 71% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of IFK Goteborg's games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 71% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG and Degerfors IF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 44% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 24%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 52%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.