IF Elfsborg 1-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 22 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for IF Elfsborg, 1.80 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Kalmar FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.82 xG and Kalmar FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.155 / defence 1.042 | Kalmar FF attack 0.976 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.312. Data: 33 IF Elfsborg games / 33 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 28%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Kalmar FF 3.57. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 50% | Kalmar FF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.82 / Kalmar FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.155 / def 1.042 | Kalmar FF attack 0.976 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 49% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (7 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.98x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.37
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.16
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
5%
22.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.33 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 33W 14D 13L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 28W 12D 20L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.60 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (18W 8D 4L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Kalmar FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.82 xG and Kalmar FF 1.33 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Kalmar FF attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 28%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Kalmar FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.