IF Elfsborg 2-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 1 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 51% versus Hammarby FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 56% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG and Hammarby FF 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.186 / defence 1.106 | Hammarby FF attack 1.085 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.238. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 IF Elfsborg games / 57 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 39%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 70% | Hammarby FF 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.33 / Hammarby FF 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.186 / def 1.106 | Hammarby FF attack 1.085 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hammarby FF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 32% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.42
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.49
Hammarby FF xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.49 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 57 games, going 27W 14D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.81 PPG from 57 outings (29W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.67 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 27W 14D 16L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 29W 16D 12L in their last 57 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.79 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.36 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Hammarby FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (IF Elfsborg) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 36%; Hammarby FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Hammarby FF 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG and Hammarby FF 1.49 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.19 / defence 1.11 against Hammarby FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 39%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 56%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.67 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.