IF Elfsborg 4-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Elfsborg 2.30 PPG, BK Hacken 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 57% versus BK Hacken 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | BK Hacken 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.75 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.143 / defence 1.053 | BK Hacken attack 0.968 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.073. Data: 47 IF Elfsborg games / 47 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 22%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 4.55. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 50% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.75 / BK Hacken 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.143 / def 1.053 | BK Hacken attack 0.968 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
BK Hacken xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 51% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.14) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.70
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.09
BK Hacken xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
26.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.09 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 22W 18D 7L from 47 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 12L across 47 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.79 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 11W 10D 3L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 5W 12D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.53 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 18D 7L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 18W 17D 12L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.79 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.12 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 62%, BK Hacken 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IF Elfsborg) and 42% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IF Elfsborg's games and 62% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 42% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over BK Hacken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat BK Hacken 4-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.75 xG and BK Hacken 1.09 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against BK Hacken attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 22%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, BK Hacken 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.79 PPG, BK Hacken 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.