IF Brommapojkarna 2-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as IF Brommapojkarna face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grimsta IP plays host to IF Brommapojkarna versus AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IF Brommapojkarna at home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AIK Stockholm away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
AIK Stockholm arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to AIK Stockholm, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2025, ended IF Brommapojkarna 1–2 AIK Stockholm — a AIK Stockholm win.
The H2H data backs the away side. AIK Stockholm have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 57% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 55% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / defence 1.082 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.473. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 31 games and AIK Stockholm's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 43%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.09 | Draw 4.07 | AIK Stockholm 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 home games and AIK Stockholm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (IF Brommapojkarna 31 games, AIK Stockholm 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 / AIK Stockholm 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.014 / def 1.082 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.986 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.57
AIK Stockholm xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 13 April 2026 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 32% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.99x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 31 games and AIK Stockholm's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
32%
3.09
25%
4.07
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.57
AIK Stockholm xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.57 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 30W 12D 18L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 0.97 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 5D 17L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 13W 5D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 0.97 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.47 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: AIK Stockholm 5-6 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 53%, AIK Stockholm 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 50% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 33%; IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 73% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm finished level at 2-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.57 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 43%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 55%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.