Helsingborg 0-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hammarby FF (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Hammarby FF are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 46% versus Hammarby FF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 51% | Hammarby FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.71 xG and Hammarby FF 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.591 / defence 1.265 | Hammarby FF attack 1.048 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Helsingborg games / 59 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 14% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 58%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 7.14 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 60% | Hammarby FF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 14% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Helsingborg 0.71 / Hammarby FF 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.591 / def 1.265 | Hammarby FF attack 1.048 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Helsingborg 0 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 14% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 58% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Helsingborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.59x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.05x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
14%
7.29
28%
3.59
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.38
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
7.29
14%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
3%
38.60
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.67 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 13D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.80 PPG from 59 outings (30W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 8W 6D 15L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 30W 16D 13L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.03 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Helsingborg 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 41%, Hammarby FF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Helsingborg) and 48% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 34%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 34% of games; Hammarby FF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 48% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Helsingborg's recent games and 48% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Helsingborg 0-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.71 xG and Hammarby FF 1.67 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.59 / defence 1.26 against Hammarby FF attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 14% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 58%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 51%, Hammarby FF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.