Helsingborg 0-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Olympia — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helsingborg, 0 for Djurgardens IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 49% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 51% | Djurgardens IF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.84 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.669 / defence 1.229 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.085 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.077. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Helsingborg games / 43 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 22% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 1.96. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 50% | Djurgardens IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 22% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Helsingborg 0.84 / Djurgardens IF 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.669 / def 1.229 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.085 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Djurgardens IF xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Helsingborg 0 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 22% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.67) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
22%
4.55
27%
3.68
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.28
1.44
Djurgardens IF xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
19.12
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.7 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.44 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 14W 11D 18L from 43 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 10L across 43 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 9D 10L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.10 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 July 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helsingborg's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
2
Draws
1
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2022, when Helsingborg 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 43%, Djurgardens IF 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Helsingborg and 24% for Djurgardens IF.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 38%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Djurgardens IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 29% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 24% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Helsingborg 0-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.84 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.44 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 22% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 51%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 51%, Djurgardens IF 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.