Helsingborg 1-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Degerfors IF travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Degerfors IF — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 46% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 49% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.00 xG and Degerfors IF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.588 / defence 1.245 | Degerfors IF attack 0.833 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.238. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Helsingborg games / 57 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 33% | Degerfors IF 41%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Degerfors IF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 50% | Degerfors IF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 33% | Degerfors IF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Helsingborg 1.00 / Degerfors IF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.588 / def 1.245 | Degerfors IF attack 0.833 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Degerfors IF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Helsingborg 1 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 27% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Helsingborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.59x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
27%
3.75
33%
3.06
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.28
1.28
Degerfors IF xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.28 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 13D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.05 PPG from 57 outings (16W 12D 29L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.12 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helsingborg's home form reads 8W 6D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.09 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.07 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helsingborg's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2024, when Helsingborg 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 39%, Degerfors IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Helsingborg) and 46% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 36% of games; Degerfors IF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Helsingborg's recent games and 46% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Helsingborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Helsingborg 1-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.00 xG and Degerfors IF 1.28 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.59 / defence 1.25 against Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 27% | Draw 33% | Degerfors IF 41%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 49%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.12 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.