Hammarby FF 4-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mjallby AIF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 61% and Mjallby AIF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 65% | Mjallby AIF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.42 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.036 / defence 1.140 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.818 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.382. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Hammarby FF games / 23 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 32%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 1.42 / Mjallby AIF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.036 / def 1.140 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.818 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 4 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 38% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.29 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 9D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.43 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 3W 7D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.43 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.45 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 54%, Mjallby AIF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Hammarby FF) and 46% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 54% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 46% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 4-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.42 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 65%, Mjallby AIF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.43 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.