Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
3Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
Malmo FF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Hammarby FF 3W, Malmo FF 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 43% versus Malmo FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Malmo FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.01 xG and Malmo FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.555 / defence 0.742 | Malmo FF attack 0.976 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.340. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Hammarby FF games / 37 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 17%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Malmo FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 40% | Malmo FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Hammarby FF 2.01 / Malmo FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.555 / def 0.742 | Malmo FF attack 0.976 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Malmo FF xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF 4 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 61% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hammarby FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Record (9 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 3 | Malmo FF 3W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (0.98x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.49
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.98
0.97
Malmo FF xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
44.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.97 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 11D 14L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Malmo FF's form line: 32W 18D 10L from 60 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.90 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.27 PPG from 30 outings (21W 5D 4L).
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 12W 13D 5L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.88 scored and 0.97 conceded. Hammarby FF's scoring rate against Malmo FF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Malmo FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 32W 18D 10L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 43%, Malmo FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hammarby FF) and 53% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Malmo FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 53% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hammarby FF's matches and 53% of Malmo FF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Malmo FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 4-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.01 xG and Malmo FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.55 / defence 0.74 against Malmo FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 17%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Malmo FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.93 PPG, Malmo FF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.