Hammarby FF 3-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 3D 0L at Tele2 Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.50 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 1, IFK Goteborg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 55% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 52% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.62 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.253 / defence 1.030 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.077. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Hammarby FF games / 42 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Goteborg 3.85. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Hammarby FF 1.62 / IFK Goteborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.253 / def 1.030 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
IFK Goteborg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 49% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.01
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.13
IFK Goteborg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.13 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 21W 11D 10L from 42 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 15L across 42 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.76 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 14W 6D 1L from 21 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 21W 11D 10L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.29 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 62%, IFK Goteborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hammarby FF) and 48% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.62 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.03 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 26%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 52%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.76 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.