Hammarby FF 0-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hammarby FF face IFK Goteborg.

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Analysis & Preview

IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Monday 15 July 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, IFK Goteborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Hammarby FF's games and 60% of IFK Goteborg's (from Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for IFK Goteborg and 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Hammarby FF 1–1 IFK Goteborg — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Hammarby FF an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 54% versus IFK Goteborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Goteborg 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.17 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.153 / defence 0.853 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.908 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.358. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 43 games and IFK Goteborg's last 43.

Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 63% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.59 | Draw 5.04 | IFK Goteborg 5.75. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 80% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 60% (last 10 away games).

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