Hammarby FF 3-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Hammarby FF's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of GIF Sundsvall's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hammarby FF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 5–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 52% versus GIF Sundsvall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.55 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.279 / defence 0.910 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.658 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.135. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Hammarby FF games / 16 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 78% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 8%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | GIF Sundsvall 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 78% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 2.55 / GIF Sundsvall 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.279 / def 0.910 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.658 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
46%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 78% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.28) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.66x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.84
8%
13.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.23
0.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.84
15%
Draw
13.12
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
8%
12.85
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
168.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.68 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF come into this having played 46 games, going 24W 11D 11L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.37 PPG from 46 outings (18W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hammarby FF's home form reads 15W 5D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 19L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Hammarby FF 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 59%, GIF Sundsvall 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Hammarby FF) and 41% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hammarby FF's games and 59% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Hammarby FF's matches and 41% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Hammarby FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.55 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.68 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.66 / defence 1.37, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 78% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 8%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.