Gais 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gais's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gais are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Gais's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Kalmar FF's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Gais, 0 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2024, ended Gais 3–2 Kalmar FF — a Gais win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gais — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 42% versus Kalmar FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 58% | Kalmar FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.72 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.892 / defence 0.824 | Kalmar FF attack 0.868 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.358. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gais's projected output up. Data: built from Gais's last 20 games and Kalmar FF's last 50.
Result probabilities: Gais 55% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 21%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.82 | Draw 4.20 | Kalmar FF 4.71. The model has a clear lean to Gais (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gais's last 10 home games and Kalmar FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gais 40% (last 10 home games) | Kalmar FF 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 21 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 55% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Gais 1.72 / Kalmar FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.892 / def 0.824 | Kalmar FF attack 0.868 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Gais (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Kalmar FF FAQs
What time does Gais vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Gais vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Gais 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Gais vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Kalmar FF part of?
Gais vs Kalmar FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 55% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and Kalmar FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gais vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.89) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.87x) against Gais's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 20 games and Kalmar FF's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.20
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gais xG
Total xG
2.69
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
26.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Kalmar FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gais and 0.97 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais's recent record stands at 27W 8D 15L from 50 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 24L across 50 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gais have managed 16W 3D 6L from their last 25 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 8W 3D 14L across their last 25 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.22 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
Gais (Home) vs Kalmar FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Gais vs Kalmar FF Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 27W 8D 15L in their last 50 games (1.78 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 18W 8D 24L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Kalmar FF away?
Gais's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.04 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Gais or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Gais and Kalmar FF, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Gais have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Gais 3-0 Kalmar FF on 30 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gais
1
Draws
0
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Kalmar FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Kalmar FF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 3, Kalmar FF have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gais and Kalmar FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Kalmar FF 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Kalmar FF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, Kalmar FF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Gais and 64% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 28% of games; Kalmar FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Kalmar FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Kalmar FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 56% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and Kalmar FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Gais's matches and 64% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Gais and Kalmar FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Gais's recent matches and 80% of Kalmar FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Kalmar FF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.72 xG and Kalmar FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Kalmar FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 55% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 21%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 58%, Kalmar FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.