Falkenbergs FF 3-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF meet at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Falkenbergs FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Falkenbergs FF, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Falkenbergs FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 64% and Djurgardens IF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 56% | Djurgardens IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 0.92 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.842 / defence 1.308 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.873 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.367. Data: 25 Falkenbergs FF games / 25 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 49%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Djurgardens IF 2.04. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 60% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Falkenbergs FF 0.92 / Djurgardens IF 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.842 / def 1.308 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.873 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Djurgardens IF xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Falkenbergs FF 3 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 19% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.87x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
19%
5.18
31%
3.19
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.48
1.56
Djurgardens IF xG
5.18
19%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
4%
24.69
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.56 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 4W 8D 13L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 games (0.80 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 0.83 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
1
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 3-2 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 58%, Djurgardens IF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Falkenbergs FF) and 42% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%; Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Falkenbergs FF's recent games and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Djurgardens IF 3-2 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 0.92 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.56 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.84 / defence 1.31 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 19% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 49%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Falkenbergs FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 56%, Djurgardens IF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Falkenbergs FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.