Djurgardens IF 4-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.50 PPG lead over Sirius (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sirius in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Sirius winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Sirius 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.91 xG and Sirius 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.252 / defence 1.090 | Sirius attack 0.857 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.962. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Djurgardens IF games / 35 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 61% | Draw 22% | Sirius 17%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 61% | Draw 22% | Sirius 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.91 / Sirius 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.252 / def 1.090 | Sirius attack 0.857 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sirius xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 0 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 61% chance of winning, Sirius a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.25) and Sirius's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.86x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.59
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.81
0.90
Sirius xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
3%
39.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.90 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 12D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (19W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 63%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.90 PPG; Sirius away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 57%, Sirius 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 60% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Djurgardens IF's games and 63% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 60% of Sirius's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 4-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.91 xG and Sirius 0.90 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Sirius attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 61% | Draw 22% | Sirius 17%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.